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 4/10 Good --- blogs.tnr.com http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/atom.aspx
Thursday, June 26, 2008 --- 55 days ago http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/06/26/today-s-polls-gopher
| Maybe the GOP can rebook its convention for Cleveland. Quinnipiac is out with a series of polls in four swing states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Colorado. Obama holds the lead in each one. In Minnesota, that lead is 17 points; in Wisconsin, 13 points; in Michigan, 6 points, and in Colorado 5. Obviously, these are not the numbers that John McCain wants to see. But there's bad news and there's not-so-bad news for him here. The bad news in Wisconsin and particularly Minnesota, where Obama has shown a double-digit lead in multiple recent polls. Wisconsin has been extremely competitive in the past couple cycles, as has Minnesota to a lesser degree. But Barack Obama might not be the right Democrat against whom to put those states into play. For one thing, he's from the region, and for another, he tends to do well with white voters of mainline Protestant stock like the Lutherans found commonly in the Upper Midwest. As Sean pointed out last week , the Republicans have somewhat frequently held their convention in non-competitive states -- New York City in 2004 being the most obvious example -- but Minnesota was clearly intended to be symbolic of an expanded red map, and one now has to wonder whether John McCain will waste resources there to make a good show when his opportunities lie elsewhere. The not-so-bad news is in Colorado and Michigan. Yes, McCain trails there, but by the same 5-6 point margin that Obama leads in national ... |
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