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Sunday, May 04, 2008 --- 13 days ago http://seekingalpha.com/article/75548-newspapers-not-a-zero-sum-game-a-minus-sum
| Jeff Jarvis submits: Henry Blodget analyzed
the future of newspaper advertising this week, concluding that “the $42
billion that was spent on print newspapers in 2007 isn’t going to
vaporize–it’s just going to go somewhere else.” By 2017, $10 billion of
it will go to surviving newspapers, $2 billion to outdoor, and $30
billion to digital — of which, he predicts, $5 billion will go to
newspaper web sites and $25 billion will go to “Google (GOOG), Yahoo (YHOO),
Craigslist, eBay (EBAY), Amazon (AMZN), job sites, blogs, mobile ads, video ads, etc.”
But I disagree. Much of the advertising that is still in newspapers will
vaporize. Much of it already has vaporized. Papers in top markets are
down tens upon tens of millions of dollars each in classified revenue
that has disappeared. Those former advertisers are using free or
near-free substitutes to bring in and serve customers: craigslist ,
real estate agents’ own sites, car dealers’ own sites, and other new
competitors. That’s not even to mention the cheaper sites — Monster (MNST), et
al — that took real market share but at lower revenue. That newspaper
revenue is gone forever. I’m not whining about that. It’s the new
reality of the post-scarcity economy . This will only continue. Complete Story »
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Anytime
