»Click here to calculate your site FeedRank Today«
FeedRank, a newly developed algorithm for ranking RSS feeds only on RSSMicro
Click here to learn more
 4/10 Good --- www.clusterstock.com http://feeds.feedburner.com/clusterstock
Wednesday, July 09, 2008 --- 50 days ago http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/clusterstock/~3/330871764/morgan-stanley-recessio
 Morgan Stanley economists Richard Berner and David Greenlaw think rebate checks and strong export growth helped sustain an unexpected bounce in the first half of 08. Unfortunately, they also think this has just postponed the inevitable: The US economy has thus far proved more resilient than we thought: We now estimate that first-half real growth ran at a 1 % annual rate, while just a month ago we thought that the economy had been essentially flat in the first half of the year. That sizable difference owes importantly to tax rebates lifting consumer outlays sooner than we expected, plus the apparent resilience of business outlays for capital spending and the effect of strong growth abroad on US exports. As these temporary effects fade, however, Berner and Greenlaw see a downturn emerging in Q4, which will persist until the second quarter of 2009: Nonetheless, we think that economic durability won't last. In our view, the combination of tight financial conditions, higher energy quotes, higher global inflation and weaker global growth will soon promote a mild downturn. Specifically, we think that the economy will contract by a 1% average annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, and that the economy will be flat over the four quarters ending in the second quarter of 2009. More specifically Berner and Greenlaw see 4 vicious circles which will perpetuate current economic weakness: ...we think that four adv ... |
|
|
Recent Posts
|
|
|
Facebook Del.icio.us Digg StumbleUpon Reddit Google
Anytime
