Despite Barack Obama's (D) amazingly consistent lead throughout the general election over John McCain (R) , the talking heads on cable television returned to their incessant bloviating over whether Obama should be leading by more than just five points over McCain. It's really painful to watch these fools who don't bother to pay attention to history to understand how a five-point popular vote victory almost always translates when it comes to the only metric that matters -- the Electoral College. (Hint: landslide) So, rather than expect that someone will take a peek at historical data, I figured I'd go ahead and do it myself. Below are the results from the last 20 presidential elections, listing the Electoral Vote margin by the winner over the loser (or second place finisher), as well as the popular vote margin. Year Winner EV Margin Pop Vote Margin 2004 Bush 36 2.4 2000 Bush 4 -0.5 1996 Clinton 220 8.5 1992 Clinton 202 5.6 1988 Bush 315 7.8 1984 Reagan 512 18.2 1980 Reagan 440 9.7 1976 Carter 57 2.1 1972 Nixon 503 23.2 1968 Nixon 110 0.7 1964 Johnson 434 22.6 1960 Kennedy 84 0.1 1956 Eisenhower 384 15.4 1952 Eisenhower 353 10.9 1948 Truman 114 4.5 1944 Roosevelt 333 7.5 1940 Roosevelt 367 9.9 1936 Roosevelt 515 24.3 1932 Roosevelt 413 17.7 1928 Hoover 357 17.4 Then, I charted this data into a simple Excel spreadsheet and added a trendline. Take note of just how large of an electoral landslide results from a five-point popu ...
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Despite Barack Obama's (D) amazingly consistent lead throughout the general election over John McCain (R) , the talking heads on cable television returned to their incessant bloviating over whether Obama should be leading by more than just five points over McCain. It's really painful to watch these fools who don't bother to pay attention to history to understand how a five-point popular vote victory almost always translates when it comes to the only metric that matters -- the Electoral College. (Hint: landslide) So, rather than expect that someone will take a peek at historical data, I figured I'd go ahead and do it myself. Below are the results from the last 20 presidential elections, listing the Electoral Vote margin by the winner over the loser (or second place finisher), as well as the popular vote margin. Year Winner EV Margin Pop Vote Margin 2004 Bush 36 2.4 2000 Bush 4 -0.5 1996 Clinton 220 8.5 1992 Clinton 202 5.6 1988 Bush 315 7.8 1984 Reagan 512 18.2 1980 Reagan 440 9.7 1976 Carter 57 2.1 1972 Nixon 503 23.2 1968 Nixon 110 0.7 1964 Johnson 434 22.6 1960 Kennedy 84 0.1 1956 Eisenhower 384 15.4 1952 Eisenhower 353 10.9 1948 Truman 114 4.5 1944 Roosevelt 333 7.5 1940 Roosevelt 367 9.9 1936 Roosevelt 515 24.3 1932 Roosevelt 413 17.7 1928 Hoover 357 17.4 Then, I charted this data into a simple Excel spreadsheet and added a trendline. Take note of just how large of an electoral landslide results from a five-point popu ...