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 7/10 Very Good --- blog.wired.com http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/atom.xml
| Wired.com weighs in on the latest science news, including space, biology, disease, drugs and alcohol, geology, math, neuroscience, and physics. ... |
Thursday, May 08, 2008 --- 78 days ago http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/05/climate-scienti.html
Last week, a group of German scientists led by N.S. Keenlyside published a paper in Nature asserting that the Earth might be experiencing a slight cooling that could continue for several more years.
Today, a group of rival scientists have publicly taken issue with that claim and challenged the German climate modelers to a 2500 euro bet. Posting on RealClimate.org, the group seemed to be goading Keenlyside into taking a public position on the likelihood of what some media outlets termed "global cooling."
"If the authors of the paper really believe that their forecast has a greater than 50% chance of being correct, then they should accept our offer of a bet; it should be easy money for them," the scientists wrote . "If they do not accept our bet, then we must question how much faith they really have in their own forecast.
The terms of the bet are simple. Keenlyside and his team predicted that, due natural oceanic variability, the mean global temperature of the world from 2000-2010 would be lower than it was from 1994-2004. If the Earth's average temperature isn't lower, the RealClimate folks--Stefan Rahmstorf, Michael Mann, Ray Bradley, William Connolley, David Archer, and Caspar Ammann--win the money.
The challenge hearkens back to a host of other wagers made on the outcome of scientific measurements. One famous example is Alfred Russel Wallace's 500 pound bet with John Hampden that the world was not flat , whi ... |
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